2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season
The 2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season is an event in tropical cyclone meteorology. The season began on June 1, 2014, and it will end on November 30, 2014, dates that conventionally delimit the timeframe for tropical cyclogenesis. However, any tropical cyclone that forms between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2014, will factor into the season total. The season would begin with the formation of Tropical Depression Antonio (Alice) on June 17, which briefly became the strongest Bikini Bottom tropical cyclone in modern history. Next, Hurricane Barcelona exceeded Antonio's intensity and became one of the strongest tropical cyclones to ever affect the Midway Islands. Seasonal summary Mr. Thicklebach, a famous Bikini Bottom scientist, and his team of coworkers met on December 3, 2013 to conclude the previous season's total activity and issue the first pre-seasonal forecast for the 2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season. During the month of June, two tropical cyclones, Antonio and Barcelona, both of which became very strong Category 5 hurricanes. These numbers are slightly below the average of 2.5 named storms, but above the average of 1.5 hurricanes and significantly above the norm of a major hurricane every other year. As a matter of fact, Antonio and Barcelona are the two strongest tropical cyclones of any month in the Bikini Bottom region. Primarily due to Antonio's intensity and longevity, the June ACE value of 70.4375 was 176% greater than the previous record set in 2013 and 347% of the average pre-July ACE value. However, July proved to be far less eventful. No tropical cyclones developed whatsoever due to the sudden appearance of strong wind shear and heavy dry air. This values is slightly below the averages of 0.5 named storms. However, due to record June activity, the ACE value of 2014 remained 156% greater than the previous record high set in 2013 and 153% of the average pre-August ACE value. Seasonal forecasts In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several seasonal hurricane forecasts are released from several meteorological agencies. These include forecasters from the Bikini Bottom Hurricane Warning Center (BBHWC). As stated by the BBHWC, an average Bikini Bottom hurricane season contains roughly 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 3.5 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 160.865 units. Pre-season forecasts On December 3, 2013, Mr. Thicklebach's BBHWC coworkers issued the first seasonal forecast for the upcoming 2014 season. In their forecast, they called for 10 total storms, 33.75 named storm days, 4 hurricanes, 9.25 hurricane days, 1 major hurricane, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 34.75 units. This level of predicted activity was far below the numbers witnessed in the previous two seasons. Several reasons were attributed to the lack of activity. First, a extremely rare La Niña typically witnessed only once per century would cause sea surface temperatures (sea surface temperatures) to be nearly five degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal, preventing tropical cyclogenesis. Second, wind shear was predicted to reach all-time record highs, a second inhibitor of tropical cyclone development. Finally, dry air from a very severe Hawaiian drought was forecast to persist in the Bikini Bottom region until November 2014, destroying all tropical waves in the vincity. Also, the BBHWC noted an intense trough would also steer almost every tropical cyclone that did develop away from Bikini Bottom and towards the Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin. Consequently, they gave a 4% chance a tropical storm would hit Bikini Bottom, <1% chance of a hurricane hitting, and a 0% chance of a major hurricane impact. Ten days later, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their first-ever hurricane forecast for the upcoming Bikini Bottom hurricane season. In their forecast, they called for nine total storms, 28.50 named storm days, three hurricanes, 6.00 hurricane days, one major hurricane, and 0.25 intense hurricane days, and an ACE of 28.63 units. The agency also cited the intensification of the ongoing La Niña as a likely inhibitor of tropical cyclone activity. On December 29, 2013, Thicklebach was beginning to have second thoughts of the season's activity. He now believed the season would be a lot more active than he first thought after observing that the previous two seasons were very active. He now hypothesized that the season would be even more active than 2013 and 2012 combined; the forecast called for 19 total storms, 10 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and a 65% chance of a hurricane making a Bikini Bottom landfall. However, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) disagreed with Thicklebach's new forecast. In a storm-only forecast issued on January 5, they called for eight total storms, three hurricanes, and a lone major hurricane. The JMA also warned the BBHWC the conditions were incredibly similar to the La Niña that caused record inactivity in the 2010 Pacific hurricane and typhoon seasons. One month later, the BBHWC issued its third forecast for the 2014 season. Thicklebach, listening to the JMA, significantly downgraded his forecast back to his original predictions. His team now called for seven named storms, 25.50 named storm days, three hurricanes, 3.5 hurricane days, one major hurricane, and 0.25 intense hurricane days. They also forecasted a 2% chance of a tropical storm hitting Bikini Bottom, 0% chance of a hurricane hit, and a 0% of a major hurricane impact. Two days later. Two days later, the JTWC released an updated prediction for the 2014 season. Even more pessimistic than the BBHWC, they cited the exceptional La Niña and dry air conditions in their forecast, which called for seven named storms, 19.00 named storm days, two hurricanes, 1.25 hurricane days, and no major hurricanes altogether. April forecast uproar But then on April 5, 2014, Thicklebach was still getting confused on whether this hurricane season was going to be inactive or active. He witnessed an exceptionally unusual "El Niña" he saw on SST charts, and he decided to look it up on Wikipedia. When doing so, he found something very interesting; the dubbed "El Niña" formed on August 31, 2013 in the Central Pacific and went into the Bikini Bottom Weather Center's area of responsibility in late November. Due to Thicklebach being good in science (he shows off a lot!), he noted Bikini Bottom is usually sometimes extremely cold and sometimes extremely hot. "El Niña" phenomenons usually last six months in this area, and the current was forecasted to transit back into the Central Pacific by May 9. Consequently, Thicklebach quickly made a new forecast on April 7, calling for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, three major hurricanes, 98.25 named storm days, 33.00 hurricane days, 11.5 intense hurricane days, and a 95% chance of a direct Bikini Bottom hurricane hit and a 60% chance of a major hurricane strike. Overall, he now thinks this season is going to be average or fairly active. Thicklebach acknowledged, "Many other hurricane forecasters will probably disagree with me, but that is indeed the August 2013 Central Pacific El Niña and it will return there in May." His brother said sarcastically, "What?! This seasonal forecast just jumped from below average to fairly active?! Ah, cr**! Now a Category 5 is going to come and kill me!" Thicklebach mentioned before the new discovery concluded, "Don't worry guys, my brother is a bit insane; we will get a bit more storms then we first thought but it's very rare that we will witness a Category 5." The JMA, on April 8, did, at first, think Thicklebach was crazy for hypothesizing the season again at a fairly active level jumping from a far below average prediction. Very abruptly, only two hours later, the agency then had second thoughts. Moreover, since Thicklebach is known to be the "ultimate forecaster" by many agencies worldwide, the JMA concluded an "El Niña" moving into a new region by early May would actually gradually weaken the dry air that is forecasted to be there for just three more weeks. The Bikini Bottom citizens are now taking precautions even only two months before hurricane season starts again and are now more worried after this scientific fact was "confirmed". However, three days later, the JTWC released a forecast completely contradicting the BBHWC's. The agency increased their negative viewpoint of the season, predicting only six named storms, 16.25 named storm days, two hurricanes, 1.00 hurricane days, and no major hurricanes altogether. Additionally, their forecast refuted everything the BBHWC had mentioned. First, they accused Thicklebach of making up the term "El Niña", as the word would imply both above average and below average sea surface temperatures, an impossible feat. Second, the Hawaiian dry air acknowledged in previous forecasts had actually intensified since February, and was not expected to dissipate until the summer of 2015, meaning activity would be now be extremely slow, if there was any. Third, the trough situated over Bikini Bottom was now so strong any tropical cyclone that interfered with it would almost automatically dissipate. Fourth, wind shear was approaching levels not witnessed in centuries, and any tropical wave was going to have a tough time with it regardless of how well organized it was. Fifth, a thoroughly illustrated SST map showed an extraordinarily strong Kelvin wave which was causing an upwelling of a wide area ocean water "cold enough to scare away a polar bear" in the Pacific stretching from Taiwan to California. The cold water axis was causing a "gap" in the continuous cycle of cloud patterns over the Pacific. Hence, an exceptionally obvious La Niña was present. Finally, the JTWC told the citizens of Bikini Bottom to "calm down", stating they were in a severe drought and had very little materials to get ready for a hurricane anyway. Realizing how accurate the JTWC was, the JMA reverted back to their original forecast scenarios on April 11. In an updated storm-number only forecast, they lowered their season predictions to seven named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane, citing the exploding La Niña and the insane dry air quantities as the basis for the forecast. The next day, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) joined in on the forecast team. In a storm number-only forecast, the agency called for four total storms and just one non-major hurricane, citing the La Niña conditions and cold water axis as the core sources for the forecast. Also, the CPHC confirmed the beliefs of the JTWC. In a defensive, detailed paragraph, the agency made it evident that sea surface temperatures had never even been close to the alleged "La Niña" phase; they had gradually been on the drop since August 2013 and no Kelvin waves which would have fueled the event came along. In addition, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) e-mailed Thicklebach, stating, "BBHWC, look. We have no idea what you all are thinking, but you are just trying to freak out everyone in Bikini Bottom and Hawaii. There is no such thing as an "El Niña" nor will there ever be one, and the evidence you have presented in your forecast is being completely contradicted by the conditions in the Pacific right now. We do not know how educated you are in the world of hurricane forecasting, but it is very clear you are not." Embarrassed by the outrage from other agencies, the BBHWC decided to take action. First, they apologized to the other centers for causing the excess hype uproar. Second, they confessed Thicklebach had made up the term "El Niña" for the sake of defending an active season. Third, they selected five analogue years which witnessed similar conditions in the region - 1977, 1979, 1996, 2008, and 2010. None of these seasons witnessed more than one storm persist near Bikini Bottom. Using these factors, the BBHWC made its most agressive forecast to date - no hurricanes whatsoever, only three named storms and 8.75 named storm days. Citing a slight increase in sea surface temperatures, the BBHWC made a minor modification to their forecast on May 24, calling for four named storms, 11.5 named storm days, one hurricane, 0.25 hurricane days, and a 1% chance of a Bikini Bottom. The JTWC updated their forecast the next day. Along with it, they listed some seasonal precautions. First, they noted in past seasons like 2014, seasons would usually start incredibly active before becoming much more inactive. Second, while the ocean was effectively ice near Bikini Bottom, a small patch of near average sea surface temperatures was present near the International Date Line. In comparison, last year had wind shear and vertical instability become less abundant at this time; this is contrary to the increasing amounts being witnessed. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was also rather close to the equator for any significant storms to occur in 2014. Nevertheless, Bikini Bottom was warned to prepare like always. Their forecast called for three named storms and one hurricane. Accumulated cyclone energy The table above shows the ACE for each storm in the season, based on JTWC data. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are not included in the ACE, such as the inital portion of Barcelona. Storm Fatality Index On February 9, 2014, the BBHWC announced the introduction of a new tropical cyclone scale - the Storm Fatality Index (SFI). Basically speaking, the SFI is similar to the ACE and Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP). A storm's SFI is determined by multiplying a storm's total fatalities by ten (10). Consequently, a storm causing 15 fatalities would receive an SFI of 150. Timeline ImageSize = width:800 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2014 till:01/12/2014 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2014 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0-62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph_(63-117 km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph_(119-153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥156_mph_(≥250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData = barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:17/06/2014 till:23/06/2014 color:C5 text:Antonio (Alice) from:17/06/2014 till:22/06/2014 color:C5 text:Barcelona (Bret) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2014 till:01/07/2014 text:June from:01/07/2014 till:01/08/2014 text:July from:01/08/2014 till:01/09/2014 text:August from:01/09/2014 till:01/10/2014 text:September from:01/10/2014 till:01/11/2014 text:October from:01/11/2014 till:01/12/2014 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Storm names BBHWC naming list The following list of storms will be used to name any storm that forms in the Bikini Bottom Hurricane Warning Center's area of responsibility in 2014. Retired names, if any, will be announced on March 17, 2015 at Session XXVIII of the Bikini Bottom Meteorological Organization. Because this is the first usage of this naming list since the practice begun in the 2012 season, it will consequently mark the first time any of these names will be used. JTWC naming list On February 9, 2014, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center announced they would began naming all tropical and subtropical depressions that formed in the BBHWC's area of responsibility using the Spanish alphabet. This naming list can get its names retired. It is also not related whatsoever to the BBHWC naming list; these names are for JTWC purposes only and will not show up in BBHWC advisories. All names will be used for the first time. Tropical Weather Outlook JTWC: ABBB10 PGTW 140000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIKINI BOTTOM AND /MIDWAY ISLANDS ISSUED/020155Z-030000ZJUN2014// RMKS/ 1. BIKINI BOTTOM AREA (160W TO 180): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 2. MIDWAY ISLANDS AREA (150W TO 180): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. // NNNN BBHWC: ZCZC BIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KBBHWC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS BIKINI BOTTOM HURRICANE CENTER BIKINI ATOLL 1100 BBT FRI AUG 2 2014 (0000 UTC SAT AUG 3 2014) TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FORECASTER TILLERMAN Storms Hurricane Antonio (Alice) An area of disorganized thunderstorms nearly 1,250 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii was designated Invest 90K by the JTWC on June 14. It began to gradually organize under relaxing wind shear, developing very deep convection. The next day, the BBHWC began to monitor the invest. By June 16, convection and banding features were evident in the system. As the depression began to turn northwest, the JTWC proclaimed the system Tropical Depression Antonio on June 17. Transversing warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear, Anotnio became a tropical storm the next day; the BBHWC classified the system as Tropical Storm Alice. Deep spiral rainbands and a pinhole eye signaled the potential for rapid intensification. By June 19, very strong rainbands and deep convection were present in the storm. At 1434 UTC on June 19, a JTWC buoy recorded hurricane force winds, prompting a special upgrade to the season's first hurricane. By 1635 UTC the same day, another buoy recorded winds of Category 2 intensity, prompting a second special update. A Hurricane Hunters flight is being sent to investigate the hurricane. Its arrival at the hurricane confirmed it was the strongest Bikini Bottom tropical cyclone on record, eclipsing Eve in 2012, only to be surpassed by Barcelona. At the time, Antonio had a completely symmetrical eye and extremely cold cloud tops of nearly -50°C (-58°F). With well above average sea surface temperatures and no wind shear or dry air, Antonio is expected to further intensify. At 0203Z on June 20, Antonio became the first Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in Bikini Bottom waters. Another Hurricane Hunters flight was being sent out to investigate the system. At 1735Z, a gust exceeding 290 mph was reported by an NOAA buoy; this is the strongest gust ever reported worldwide outside of a tornado. Flight data indicated a much stronger storm on June 21, with of winds of 260 mph and gusts well in excess of 350 mph. After maintaining intensity for twelve hours, very heavy shear and large amounts of dry air began to cause Antonio to explosively weaken over the course of 36 hours, losing 25 mph of winds in one advisory at one point. By June 23, it was barely clinging on to Category 5 intensity. While still relatively strong, the hurricane exited the basin that same day. No land effects were reported from Antonio, despite its strength. Hurricane Barcelona (Bret) A kona low began to show signs of convection on June 15, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system into Invest 91K. The BBHWC began to monitor the system the next day. On June 17, the system became Subtropical Storm Barcelona as a closed circulation was detected. Albeit a low pressure, Barcelona only slightly intensified over the next two days. However, decreasing wind shear should prompt further intensification over the next few days. On June 18, the BBHWC classified the system as a subtropical storm, and the next day, Barcelona became a tropical system. It would receive the name Bret from the BBHWC. By June 20, increasing convection and rapidly decreasing barometric pressures cued the beginning of a phase of rapid intensification. At 0250 UTC on June 20, Barcelona became the season's second hurricane. In less than 12 hours, record breaking sea surface temperatures triggered a round of explosive intensification even faster than Antonio. Barcelona attained Category 5 intensity at 1648 UTC June 20, becoming the second strongest Bikini Bottom tropical cyclone in history. A Hurricane Hunters flight was sent to investigate the system. Analysis showed winds of 200 knots (230 mph) in the center, much to the surprise of JTWC and BBHWC forecasters. By the end of the day, Dvorak estimates prompted an intensity upgrade to 230 knots (265 mph) with a pressure of 824 mbar. This meant Barcelona had surpassed Antonio as the season's strongest hurricane. Only six hours after reaching its peak, the hurricane crossed the International Date Line. Damage in Midway Atoll was extremely severe from Barcelona. Hendersen Field was damaged beyond repair, with the runways and airplanes completely wiped off the face of the earth. Even worse affected was the biological species on the atoll. Thousands of laysan albatrosses drowned by a storm surge of nearly 20 feet, which inundated much of the atoll. Other species, including the Hawaiian monk seal, endured similar losses. The effects of Barcelona persisted even after it exited the Bikini Bottom region, as marine debris from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch washed onshore, killing off hundreds of more organisms. In the end, 126 human fatalities, $16.4 million (2014 USD), and thousands of animal deaths were reported from Barcelona in the Midway Atoll, making it one of the worst storms to affect the region. Category:Future storms Category:Funny seasons Category:Tropical storm Category:Hurricanes